Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Preface
Contents
Figures
Tables
Executive Summary
Acknowledgments
Abbreviations
Origin and Focus of Project
Research Question, Design, and Approach
Structure of the Document
Urbanization Is Increasing
Urbanization Is Concentrated in a Small Number of Very Large Cities
Urbanization as Fluid Phenomenon: Floating Populations
Pakistanis in Gulf as a Major “City”
Urbanization, Public Services, and Economic Opportunities
Karachi: Pakistan’s “Maximum City”
Lahore: Punjab’s Heartland
Quetta: View from the Periphery
Pakistan Muslim League–Nawaz
Pakistan People’s Party
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf
Islamist Parties
Awami National Party
Pakistan Muslim League–Quaid-i-Azam
Increasing Urbanization May Fuel Anti-American Sentiment
Increasing Urbanization May Fuel Radical Transnational Islamist Groups
Increasing Urbanization Is Likely to Change the Dynamic of Counterterrorism
Demographic Shifts Are Likely to Make Karachi a Potential Site for Increased Terrorism and Anti-American Extremist Operations
Demography and Urbanization Are Unlikely to Dislodge the PML-N/PPP Duopoly from Control of Pakistan’s Central Government and Most Provincial Governments
Demography and Urbanization Are Unlikely to Bring Islamist Parties to Power at the Center or in Punjab and Sindh
Demography and Urbanization Are Likely to Increase Popular Demand for Political Reform—With Both Positive and Potentially Adverse Impacts on U.S. Security Interests
Conclusions
The X-Factor in the Equation Is Popular Demand for Governance
Appendix: Most Populous Cities
References
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