Cover
Title Page
Copyright
About This Report
Summary
Contents
Table
Chapter One: Introduction and Approach
Approach
Chapter Two: Literature Review
The Individual and Psychological Level
The Bureaucratic, Process, or Organizational Level
The Interactional Level
Split Levels of Intelligence Analysis
Levels of Analysis over Time
Conclusion
Chapter Three: Early Cold War (Before 1981): The Kennedy, Johnson, and Nixon Administrations
Creeping Bias in the Planning for the Bay of Pigs Invasion
Politicization over the North Vietnamese Order of Battle
President Nixon’s Suspicions About the Intelligence Community
Conclusion
Chapter Four: Late Cold War (1981–1993): The Administrations of Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush
Soviet Hawks in the Central Intelligence Agency
Changes to the Directorate of Intelligence Under Robert Gates
Conclusion
Chapter Five: The Clinton Administration (1993–2001)
The Intelligence Community’s Role in the Absence of the Cold War
Public Trust in Flux: The Ames Scandal
(Non)Attribution of the USS Cole Bombing
Conclusion
Chapter Six: The George W. Bush Administration (2001–2009)
Repeated Questioning of Intelligence by Administration Officials
Policy Officials Disseminating Intelligence Analyses
Public Statements Not Supported by Intelligence
Retaliation Against Those with Alternative Viewpoints
Intelligence Community Self-Adjustments
Conclusion
Chapter Seven: The Obama Administration (2009–2017)
Bias During the Obama Administration
Internal Bias: “Politicization by Omission” or Self-Censorship
External Bias in Counterterrorism and Green Forces Analysis
External Bias in Talking Points
Selective Declassification
Conclusion
Chapter Eight: The Trump Administration (2017–2021)
Policy Officials in Charge of Intelligence
Intelligence Officials with No Incentive to Dissent
Just Enough “Truthiness” in Talking Points
Conclusion
Bias Is Dependent on Presidential Administration
Minimizing the Appearance of Dissent
Self-Censorship in the Intelligence Community
Tension in the Intelligence Community Mission
Looking Forward
Preventing Bias in the Future
A. Decisionmaker Interview Protocol
B. Intelligence Community Member Interview Protocol
C. Literature Search Strategy
Abbreviations
References
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