Cover
Title
Copyright
Abstract
Contents
Figures,Tables,Box
Summary
Acknowledgments
Abbreviations
Chapter One: Introduction
Research Approach and Road Map to This Report
Conflict Theory
Social Movement Theory
Social Network Theory
Anthropological Theories
Cultures of Violence
Inequality and Aggression
Local Systems of Social Control, Kinship Ties, and Identity
Greed and Grievance Theories
Concluding Remarks
Introduction
Methodology for Validating the List of Factors and Their Characteristics
Key Factors and Their Attributes
Factor 1: Level of External Support for Violent, Nonstate Groups
Factor 2: Extent to Which Government Considered Illegitimate or Ineffective by the Population
Factor 3: Presence of Tribal or Ethnic Indigenous Populations with History of Resisting State Rule, and/or Cultures That Encourage or Justify Violent Behavior
Factor 4: Levels of Absolute or Relative Poverty/Inequality; Presence of One or More Groups That Have Recently Lost Status or Power
Factor 5: Extent to Which Local Governance Is Fragmented or Nonexistent and Vulnerable to Co-Option from Insurgent Replacement Institutions
Factor 6: Existence of Ungoverned Space
Factor 7: Presence of Multiple Violent, Nonstate Groups Competing for Power
Factor 8: Level of Government Restriction on Political or Ideological Dissent; Extent to Which Individuals Feel Alienated from Governing Process
Factor 9: Level of Consistency/Agreement Between Nonstate Group’s Goals and Philosophy and Preferences/Worldview/Ideology of Target Populations
Factor 10: Extent to Which Population and Nonstate Groups Perceive Faltering Government Commitment to a Counterinsurgency Campaign
Factor 11: Capacity, Resources, and Expertise of Violent, Nonstate Groups
Factor 12: Pervasiveness of Social Networks Capable of Being Galvanized and Mobilized to Resistant Action
Concluding Remarks
Chapter Four: Relationships Among Factors: Peru and Nepal Case Studies
The Shining Path in Peru, 1980–1992
The Maoist Insurgency in Nepal, 1997–2006
Concluding Remarks
Chapter Five: Utilizing the Factors for Analysis
Metrics for Factor 1: External Support
Metrics for Factor 2: Government Legitimacy or Effectiveness
Metrics for Factor 5: Fragmented Governance
Metrics for Factor 8: Government Repression
Metrics for Factor 10: Perceived Government Commitment
Applying the Factors in Analysis
Using the Factors to Prioritize Level of Effort
Concluding Remarks
Key Findings
Recommendations
Concluding Remarks
A. Factors from Joint and Army Doctrine
B. Factor Matrix
C. Cross-Matching 12 Factors with RAND Case Studies on 30 Counterinsurgencies
Bibliography